Published Articles (2025)
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2025
December
- 2025-12-31: Best Books, Articles, Films and Theater I Read and Saw (2025 Edition) (Homepage)
- 2025-12-31: Best Articles I Wrote (2025 Edition) (Homepage)
- 2025-12-22: 11 clips that defined 2025 (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-22: 11 Clips That Defined 2025 (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-22: The Best of Riskgaming 2025 (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-19: Your top reads of the year (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-18: Experimental Automata (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-18: Our newest scenario, Experimental Automata (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-17: Can software platforms reverse enshittification? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-17: Can software platforms reverse enshittification? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-12: Reading, wasting time, space race (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-11: Our newest scenario, No Man’s Land (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-10: The inside story of the billionaires fighting for space (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-10: No Man's Land (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-10: The inside story of the billionaires fighting for space (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-10: Truth Santa (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-05: Insomnia, starting over, and the AI battle we're already losing (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-03: Why AI safety is like a bolt in a croissant (Lux Capital)
- 2025-12-03: Why AI safety is like a bolt in a croissant (Lux Capital)
November
- 2025-11-21: Pennies, CIA, and AI's time delusions (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-19: Join us for Truth Santa: A Lux Riskgaming Holiday Party in SF (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-19: How to be a polymath (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-19: How to be a polymath (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-14: Taiwan, climate modeling, unemployment (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-13: “Collaborating with the entire history of human expression” (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-13: “Collaborating with the entire history of human expression” (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-07: Self-help, the end of culture, and AI as wildfire (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-06: Europe, China and the future of open borders in science (Lux Capital)
- 2025-11-06: Europe, China and the future of open borders in science (Lux Capital)
October
- 2025-10-31: Losing the next war, AI "thought," DeepSeek (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-30: Make gray-zone war expensive again (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-29: On the frontiers of research at the Lux AI Summit (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-29: On the frontiers of research at the Lux AI Summit (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-24: Our anti-recommendation for the week (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-22: The present and future of wargaming (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-22: The present and future of wargaming (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-20: The internet gets an AWS-chy (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-17: AI as creature, astronomy, gray-zone warfare (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-15: What America can learn from the rebooting of Estonia (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-14: The machine burns down (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-11: Parties, pickleball, cataracts (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-09: "If you’re not solving for pain, then what the hell are you doing?" (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-04: Status, aliens, tech-bros (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-02: Riskgaming State of the Union (Lux Capital)
- 2025-10-01: Riskgaming State of the Union (Lux Capital)
September
- 2025-09-26: Sugary foods, black holes, Vegas (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-25: The global future of wargaming in Lithuania (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-24: The global future of wargaming in Lithuania (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-19: Fumes, AI bacteria, Tom Wolfe (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-17: Behind the scenes of Southwest Silicon, our new Riskgaming scenario (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-17: Southwest Silicon: Water, Semiconductors and the Future of American Economic Security (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-17: Behind the scenes of our new scenario, Southwest Silicon (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-12: Vonnegut, Nutella, Baltimore (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-10: How compute and AI will create next-gen superapps (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-10: How compute and AI will create next-gen superapps (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-09: Open secrets harm society far more than AI or disinformation (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-05: General intelligence, rats, floods and auctions (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-03: America’s degrowth lawyers need to learn from China (Lux Capital)
- 2025-09-03: America’s degrowth lawyers need to learn from China (Lux Capital)
August
- 2025-08-29: AI + cities, boxing, floundering mode and K-boom (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-28: AI will solve the fiscal crisis for cities, if we let it (City Journal)
- 2025-08-27: The CIA in the 21st Century (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-27: The CIA in the 21st Century (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-22: Being alive, AI blackmail, and AI's religion (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-21: Should AI recommend God? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-20: The challenges of complex risks in game design (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-20: The challenges of complex risks in game design (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-15: AI art, AI therapists, and clones (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-13: Intel, chips and America’s future (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-13: What's next for European defense autonomy? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-12: What exactly do we mean when we talk about Abundance for New York City? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-08: Science lies, collapse, the meaning of life (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-06: Biology is no longer science — it's engineering (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-06: Why Is Economic Data Disappearing? (City Journal)
- 2025-08-06: What’s next for European defense autonomy (Lux Capital)
- 2025-08-01: Soviet science, corn syrup, study mode (Lux Capital)
July
- 2025-07-31: Why is economic data disappearing? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-30: The future of science in an age of spending cuts (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-30: The future of science in an age of spending cuts (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-29: Will Trump’s funding cuts actually save science? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-25: AI drivel, the bots of war, bacterial batteries (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-23: The future of defense manufacturing with Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-23: Can AI teach us critical thinking? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-22: The taps are dry and the rivers are flooded (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-18: NYC meetup, disease, brain damage, serial killers (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-16: Finding a Third Way on the AI singularity (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-16: Finding a Third Way on the AI singularity (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-15: AI’s Cigarette Butler Problem (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-11: Grid blackouts, engineering durability, and blankies (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-11: The AI backlash scares the hell out of me (City Journal)
- 2025-07-09: How Jane Jacobs got Americans stuck (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-09: And just like that, it's TECH AND THE CITY (Manhattan Institute)
- 2025-07-09: How Jane Jacobs got Americans stuck (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-08: The AI backlash scares the hell out of me (Lux Capital)
- 2025-07-01: What’s the future of abundance in NYC? (Lux Capital)
June
- 2025-06-27: What America can learn from the rebooting of Estonia (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-27: AI weather, Campbell's soup, and quirks (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-25: Revisiting Jonathan Haidt on how tech can change social media and save democracy (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-24: We’re finally predicting the weather accurately (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-20: The relevant axis of political conflict is change versus stasis (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-20: Funding Palooza, Knausgård, New York, FEMA, Hyrule (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-18: Revisiting Jonathan Haidt on American structural stupidity and the post-Babel world (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-17: Uncle Sam is a terrible board member (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-13: The Government Has Your Data—and That’s a Good Thing (City Journal)
- 2025-06-13: Israel’s assault was bravura without bravado (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-11: Samuel Arbesman on his new book, The Magic of Code (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-11: Book talk: The Magic of Code (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-10: The new alchemy of computer coding (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-06: Pain killers, Star Trek, scopes (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-06: Can we ever defend against agricultural warfare? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-04: For America, is big or open best for AI models? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-06-03: Yes, I want Palantir to munch my public data (Lux Capital)
May
- 2025-05-30: For America, is big or open best for AI models? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-30: Mutations, snake bites, nuclear energy (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-28: Can we ever defend against agricultural warfare? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-27: Has China Already Won? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-23: Sycophantic AI, battery tech, and AI gaming (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-23: It’s really hard to get DC to understand Silicon Valley (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-21: How can we make the internet fun again? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-20: Tech is turning the Middle East into a pivotal region (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-16: Brain implants, friction, LegoGPT (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-16: Remembering Daniel Kahneman on optimism and self-confidence (Part 2) (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-14: Europe needs national champions, now (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-13: Riskgaming in DC, Pittsburgh, London, NYC… (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-09: Lux Science Helpline, meat sacks, A.I. philosophers… (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-08: How to turn around America’s tech-industrial decline, now (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-07: Kahneman, Duke and Mauboussin on optimism bias and self-confidence (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-02: Masochism in bioscience, sci-tech diplomacy, human decomposition … (Lux Capital)
- 2025-05-01: Waltz fired, Lutnick struggles at tech’s DC pageant (Lux Capital)
April
- 2025-04-30: Remembering Daniel Kahneman on risk, bias, and decision-making (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-30: Remembering Daniel Kahneman on Risk, Bias and Decision-Making (Part 1) (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-28: Riskgaming against a world on fire: A manifesto, of sorts (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-25: Europe needs national champions, now (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-19: Riskgaming: The Pessimistic Turn in Reindustrialization (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-19: How can we make the internet fun again? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-12: Riskgaming: Our Friends in the 51st State (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-12: Making shoes isn’t the right strategy (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-05: Riskgaming: The implacable force against Abundance (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-04: The hyper-competition of U.S.-China trade relations (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-03: Could Brexit and now U.S. Tariffs ever work? Yes, but not this way… (Lux Capital)
- 2025-04-01: OpenAI capitulates on open-source models (Lux Capital)
March
- 2025-03-29: Riskgaming: Is Plagiarism Dead? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-29: Riskgaming: Is Plagiarism Dead? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-28: “You can cause a lot of havoc with a cell phone and a cheap DJI drone” (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-22: Riskgaming: AI and the Future of Media (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-21: Why immersion — and not realism — is critical for wargaming (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-15: “We have an addiction to prediction” (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-15: Riskgaming: The Unreasonable Middle (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-08: Riskgaming: Isolating our interdependence (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-07: “Every system can be gamed” (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-01: Americans are an incredibly generous people (Lux Capital)
- 2025-03-01: Riskgaming: Thanks LA and DC plus USAID (Lux Capital)
February
- 2025-02-22: Riskgaming: Will reforming the FDA help or hurt biotechs? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-22: How America holds it all together (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-15: Riskgaming: Join us this month! (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-14: Luck rules our lives, so why don’t we teach more about it? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-08: Riskgaming: Asteroids, xeno-kidneys, planes and H5N1 (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-07: Young DOGE Engineers Are Nothing to Fret About (City Journal)
- 2025-02-06: How Russia is bringing the cost of global sabotage to zero (Lux Capital)
- 2025-02-01: Riskgaming: Germany’s radical unlearning (Lux Capital)
January
- 2025-01-31: Can you (or DOGE) product manage the government? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-25: Riskgaming: Stargate’s $500B bet for AI dominance (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-23: The on-going collapse of the global commons (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-18: Riskgaming: Should you wait to have kids? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-17: Which companies will suffer with globalization’s reversal? (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-17: In nixing deal for US Steel, Biden showed we’re not ready to rebuild our manufacturing base (New York Post)
- 2025-01-11: Riskgaming: The tragedy of national loneliness (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-10: Why financial booms and busts are the key to our progress (Lux Capital)
- 2025-01-07: Danny Crichton: Nippon was the help America needs (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
- 2025-01-06: Nippon Steel and the Closing of America’s Economic Growth (RealClear)
- 2025-01-01: Best Books, Articles, Films, Theater and Games I Read, Watched and Played (2024 Edition) (Homepage)
- 2025-01-01: Best Articles I Wrote (2024 Edition) (Homepage)